That $20 surge you see on the Uber map might be the exact reason you should drive in the opposite direction. I know that sounds crazy.
You’ve been sitting around for 20 minutes getting garbage requests. Suddenly, the map turns red and you see a $15, $20, maybe even $30 surge sitting a few miles away. Your first instinct? Drive toward it. I’ve done it. You’ve probably done it. Almost every rideshare driver has done it.
But here’s the problem: you’re probably not the only one driving toward that surge. And by the time you get there, the money may already be gone. That’s one of the biggest mistakes drivers make when trying to chase surge pricing. They look at the map as if it’s a treasure map showing exactly where the money is.
It isn’t. The money isn’t always where the map says it is.
Surge Is a Snapshot, Not a Guarantee
The first thing drivers need to understand is that surge is constantly changing. Uber and Lyft are responding to the relationship between passenger demand and available drivers. When demand increases faster than driver supply, a surge can appear.
But here’s what happens next. Drivers see the surge. Drivers start moving toward the surge. Driver supply increases. The imbalance starts disappearing. And the surge can shrink or disappear before you ever arrive.
You just spent 10 minutes driving toward a $20 opportunity that no longer exists. Now you’re sitting in the same parking lot as 30 other drivers who had exactly the same idea.
That’s not a strategy. That’s the herd mentality.
The Redder the Map, the More Drivers May Be Coming
I’ve always found it interesting how quickly drivers react to a red/purple map. One minute everyone is complaining that Uber isn’t sending them anything. The next minute, the entire driver population seems to be heading toward one little red blob on the screen. And that’s precisely why you have to be careful.
Imagine there are 50 drivers in an area and Uber needs 10 more drivers to handle demand. Then the map lights up. Those 50 drivers start moving toward the surge. Now you have 75 drivers competing for the same demand. The problem isn’t demand anymore. You’ve just created a supply problem. And the drivers who arrived first may have already taken the best trips. You’re arriving late to the party.
Stop Driving for the Surge You See
Here’s my rule: I don’t chase surge. I position myself for demand.
There’s a big difference. If I’m already near a surge area and receive a good request, fantastic, I’ll take it. But if I’m five miles away and see a $20 surge, I’m not automatically jumping in the car and driving there.
Instead, I’m asking: Why is there a surge? Is there a concert ending? An airport rush? A sporting event? Bars closing? A major hotel conference? A sudden weather event? Or is it simply a temporary imbalance that will disappear in five minutes? Understanding the reason behind the surge is much more valuable than staring at the color of the map.
The Opportunity Cost Nobody Talks About
This is where experienced drivers have an advantage. Let’s say you’re sitting in an area where you’re reasonably confident you’ll get a $15 ride within the next five minutes. Then you see a $20 surge three miles away. You drive toward it. Ten minutes later, the surge is gone. You haven’t made a dollar. You also gave up the opportunity to receive the $15 ride where you were already positioned.
That’s an opportunity cost. You didn’t just lose time. You potentially lost an income-producing opportunity. And this happens constantly in rideshare. Drivers are so focused on the money they might make that they ignore the money they’re already positioned to make.
Sometimes the Best Move Is to Leave the Surge
Here’s the counterintuitive part. Sometimes I see a massive surge and decide to go the other way. Why? Because I know what’s happening. If every driver is heading toward the red zone, I want to know where those drivers are coming from. That’s where the opportunity may be. Think about it. If 100 drivers suddenly leave one area to chase a $20 surge somewhere else, what happens to the area they just abandoned?
Supply drops. If passenger demand remains steady, that imbalance can create opportunities. I’m not saying you’ll always find a ride there. But I’m saying you should stop assuming the biggest number on your screen represents your best opportunity. Sometimes the best opportunity is created by everyone else making the same mistake.
The Best Drivers Think Five Minutes Ahead
This is what separates experienced drivers from beginners. Beginners react to what’s happening right now. Experienced drivers try to figure out what’s going to happen next. If a concert is ending at 10:30 p.m., don’t wait until 10:30 to figure out where the demand will be. If bars typically close at 2 a.m., don’t wait until 2 a.m. to start thinking about positioning. If the airport gets slammed every Monday morning, you don’t need a red map to tell you where passengers are going to be.
You already know.
Learn the rhythm of your market. Know where passengers are coming from. Know where they’re going. Know when demand spikes. And understand how other drivers are likely to react. That information is worth more than the color of your Uber map.
My Final Take
Uber and Lyft have incredibly sophisticated algorithms. But your job isn’t to blindly follow them. Your job is to make money. There’s nothing wrong with taking a $20 surge when it makes sense. There’s something wrong with driving 15 minutes to chase $20 that disappears before you arrive. Remember, surge is not income until you’re actually getting paid.
The map can tell you where demand is or at least where it was a moment ago. Your experience should tell you where demand is likely to be next. That’s the difference between chasing money and positioning yourself to make money.
So the next time your Uber/Lyft map turns bright red/purple, don’t automatically hit the gas. Look around and think. Ask yourself why the surge is there, how many other drivers are heading toward it, and what you’re giving up by chasing it.
The money isn’t always where the map says it is. Be safe out there!
Email me your comments to sergio@therideshareguy.com
Sergio@RSG
