I think there is one thing we can all agree on: Nothing about 2020 was predictable. No matter what we thought going into 2020, it was all turned on its head one way or the other.
From a global pandemic to the delivery industry booming to record-breaking votes for the presidential election to introducing phrases like “social distancing” to our everyday vocabulary, 2020 was one to remember – or maybe forget!
With the turning of the year, there’s no guarantee that we’ll get back to “normal” anytime soon or that things will ever look like they did pre-2020. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. We’ve all learned to adapt and roll with the punches. That which doesn’t kill us makes us stronger, and 2020 was a strength-building year for many of us.
With all that in mind, we know it might be impossible to predict what 2021 could bring us. However, we wanted to give it a shot, and 73 of you agreed to try to predict the future with us. We surveyed 73 drivers to see what they think the future will hold for rideshare driving and delivering in 2021. Here are the five biggest takeaways in terms of Uber and Lyft predictions.
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Uber/Lyft Predictions for 2021
1. Driver Pay Will Remain the Same – But Rider Costs Will Increase
One thing the majority of those polled (47%) predicted is that the pay for Uber and Lyft drivers will stay pretty much the same as it has been, while 36% expect it to decrease.
On the flip side, 67% say that the amount riders will have to pay will increase.
It’s a story we’ve all heard as drivers. Uber and Lyft have to make money and an “easy” way to do that is to increase how much riders are paying to use their services while either decreasing driver rates or keeping them where they are (which is already on the low end for most markets).
We can see this is definitely happening in California. With the passage of Proposition 22, many companies (including DoorDash, Lyft, Postmates, etc.) have wasted no time increasing fees on customers. Will drivers see some of that money trickle down to them in the form of benefits?
One thing you can bet: The Rideshare Guy team will be following this story and others like it closely!
2. Rideshare platforms Uber and Lyft will not become profitable
This leads to the next issue. Will Uber and Lyft become profitable? Overwhelmingly, our survey takers said “No.”
70% of respondents believe Uber will not become profitable while 73% say Lyft will not either. 2020 was supposed to be a turning point for the rideshare platforms – at least that was the plan at the beginning of 2020. Uber at least was supposed to be able to turn a profit and prove to their investors they are putting their money to good use.
Due to the coronavirus pandemic and companies shutting down temporarily to help curb the virus, ridership went way down and made it impossible for Uber or Lyft to claim profitability.
2a. But delivery may be another story
With delivery booming during the pandemic, as people stayed home and needed groceries and fast food delivered on a regular basis, those surveyed feel that delivery will prove more profitable in 2021 than its rideshare counterparts.
56% think delivery apps such as DoorDash and Instacart will be more profitable than Uber or Lyft during 2021. This is likely under the assumption that even once the pandemic restrictions ease, people will continue to order delivery, either out of concern for larger crowds risking another outbreak or because they simply enjoy the convenience of having food brought to their door.
3. Autonomous vehicles are nothing to fear…yet
86% of those surveyed state without hesitation that autonomous vehicles will not be hitting the roads in 2021. At least not to the point of taking over for rideshare driver jobs.
We generally tend to agree. Last year, Harry wrote an article on the biggest challenges Uber will face with self driving cars, including: their inability to deal with human drivers, regulation challenges, and the sheer fact that you won’t be able to completely eliminate all human driver jobs.
It was only a few short years ago that we here at RSG received a barrage of emails from drivers, worried about losing their jobs to robots. That has largely dissipated now, and many drivers we’ve spoken to over the last two years seem to have very few worries that robots are coming for their jobs. It’s a big shift in a short amount of time – and our survey results prove that!
4. Demand will increase for Uber and Lyft drivers
Many predict that as the coronavirus pandemic gets under control, the demand for drivers will increase. 47% expect the demand for drivers to increase as a whole in 2021.
One respondent stated, “If and when this pandemic is over in 2021, I think there will be a massive surge in ride requests (think “Roaring Twenties”).”
This coincides with data from Scott’s Cheap Flights, a leading travel site and famous among those who like to travel quickly (and cheaply, when you sign up for their deals emails – both free and paid versions).
In a recent survey of 5,800 members, Scott’s Cheap Flights found that “More than half (61%) said they’re feeling hopeful about travel, and they definitely plan to make up lost time, with 83% of respondents planning to take at least two domestic trips and 44% planning two or more international journeys in 2021.”
‘At least two domestic trips’ is a key takeaway for our readers. Airport travelers and those heading to and from hotels/Airbnbs to local destinations (and restaurants, bars, etc.) are key for rideshare drivers. Often, airport rides net drivers more than regular, around town trips, so statistics like this are promising for drivers hoping to a return to some normalcy in 2021.
However, with us in the 10th month of shutdowns, restrictions, and distancing, it’s hard to imagine getting to the point where it was before the pandemic hit. A lot of this also depends on how ‘open’ cities are in terms of allowing restaurants, bars and local tourist attractions to open. This, of course, depends on how many people are vaccinated and if rates of infection and ICU occupancy decrease, too.
Even with the introduction of various vaccines, I think we still have a long way to go before we see demand get to pre-2020 numbers.
5. States will have to determine employee vs independent contractor statuses
Proposition 22 was all over the news in 2020, for good reason. It was an expensive battle, mainly for Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and other gig companies, one they had to win at all costs (in their minds). It passed, with 58% of the vote, and from there, Uber and Lyft made it clear they would take propositions like Prop 22 around the country to enforce their version of a ‘third way’ of ‘employment.’
Several people wrote in responses along the lines of state legislation having to step in and take action. Here’s what some respondents had to say:
One predicts, “Increase in the debate of driver classification as Uber takes on the issue in Illinois, Massachusetts and other states.”
Another expects, “Legislative battles state by state determining employment status.”
In general, this person said we should expect “Many more regulatory hurdles for Rideshare that will hopefully benefit the labor that keeps them alive!”
This person said, “More states will enforce stricter laws around benefits for contract workers…and Uber and Lyft will continue to fight.”
I think that last statement says it best. There are going to be legal battles in 2021 and in the years ahead over worker status, and we can expect Uber and Lyft to continue to put up a fight each and every time.
Honorable mention: Comments from those surveyed
The below are all taken from those surveyed when they were asked “Do you have any other predictions for the gig economy, Uber, Lyft, etc. in 2021?” These comments either stood out to me or made me think harder.
Predictions specific to drivers:
“Both Uber and Lyft are piling up rides on experienced drivers with cheap cars in Texas. This is likely to spread to other states if their insurance costs truly do decrease. It will be harder for new drivers to make money if this policy spreads.”
“Both Uber and Lyft will lose drivers until the pandemic is controlled. This may well be good for me.”
“Lyft and Uber [should] start appreciating their full time five-star drivers and put them in a different class and different pay.”
Telling it like it is:
“Yes. I hope that their stock prices tank as more investors realize what total BS their business model really is.”
We want to know: what are your predictions for Uber, Lyft and other gig companies in 2021? Do you agree with the thoughts and predictions shared here, or do you think robot taxis are coming for our jobs in 2021? Let us know below!
-Paula @ RSG
